NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x165b7548e6a4a6651b958509776e688e21535bdf3bc1005c63077b1575cfcfdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Heat, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,720 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Magic | 44c | 21,301$9,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,928.56 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 56c | 14,599$8,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,142.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat | 56c | 3,068$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.08 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…c48fbacked Magic | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Heat | 56c | 2,111$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.41 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 56c | 1,547$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.78 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Magic | 47c | 818.19$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.64 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Heat | 53c | 749.99$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…1aa9backed Heat | 55c | 703$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.65 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 56c | 701$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…983fbacked Heat | 57c | 561.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Heat | 55c | 555.75$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.01 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Heat | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Magic | 44c | 499.4$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Magic | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Heat | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Magic | 44c | 317.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Magic | 45c | 302$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Magic | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Heat | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Magic | 57c | 271.12$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heat | 42c | 260.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 58c | 260.92$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Magic | 44c | 252.46$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 44c | 194.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 44c | 153.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Magic | 43c | 142.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…9ff5backed Magic | 43c | 141.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Magic | 43c | 140.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…50a5backed Magic | 43c | 136.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Heat | 56c | 126.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 59c | 118.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Magic | 43c | 94.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 45c | 88.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 56c | 87.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Magic | 47c | 85.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Heat | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 253 | 40.3%102 W · 151 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Magic | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Heat | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Magic | 45c | 74.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Heat | 58c | 72.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Heat | 58c | 72.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Magic | 52c | 64.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 45c | 64.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Magic | 45c | 62.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Heat | 57c | 62.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Heat | 57c | 55.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…75debacked Magic | 46c | 53.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Heat | 57c | 53.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 278 | 47.1%131 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Magic | 44c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Magic | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Heat | 56c | 33.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 55c | 32.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855c…fa95backed Magic | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Magic | 45c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Heat | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Heat | 54c | 19.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Magic | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jett Howard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jevon Carter: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HeatMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Magic won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.