TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Heat, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,053 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat54c54,168$29,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,008.591,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Heat54c35,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,899.981,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Magic46c25,176$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,576.0816640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Magic47c22,491$10,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,920.2330845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked Magic46c15,217$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,217.393240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat53c9,404$4,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.954,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic71c8,160$5,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.638,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Magic48c6,280$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,265.5623147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Magic46c6,217$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,357.3938750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat53c6,008$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.4474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1c…4694backed Magic46c5,435$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+62.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Magic46c4,907$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.5230446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat52c4,314$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.214,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat52c4,159$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1501,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Magic46c3,463$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.657950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Magic47c2,920$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.645151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic47c2,860$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat52c2,846$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.761,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Magic46c2,609$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.738946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic48c2,578$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.976,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Magic46c2,453$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.7619445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat52c2,323$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.961,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fcb…9fcdbacked Magic50c2,260$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Magic47c2,200$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.8117144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic62c2,196$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.541,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Magic46c2,170$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.578647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Magic51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98012740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat53c2,000$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.933,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3118…d244backed Heat50c1,972$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46b6…c5f9backed Heat50c1,790$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic48c1,683$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Heat38c1,676$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.057653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabcd…43ffbacked Heat50c1,478$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Heat51c1,473$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.2319645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic48c1,438$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.622,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x178b…ea4bbacked Heat50c1,346$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Magic49c1,300$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66316953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Heat31c1,240$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.2818235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat52c1,219$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.051,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a7…87b6backed Magic50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005050%25 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Heat52c1,154$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf61a…dd23backed Magic50c1,150$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.36564.6%42 W · 23 L-0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4e…baa9backed Heat50c1,106$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d8…2a72backed Magic50c1,106$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…5a70backed Magic50c1,014$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5072100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Magic48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Magic50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50033146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Heat52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5204146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic48c919.45$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4814,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc1…63b3backed Magic50c910$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Heat50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35031354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7169…0d7dbacked Magic50c691$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58d3…2996backed Magic50c668$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3343100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Magic45c666.66$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6616745.5%76 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…b1c7backed Magic50c654$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ed…c497backed Magic50c636$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3182100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0869…325ebacked Magic50c627$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Magic49c619.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.220846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Heat54c602.27$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.231,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Magic46c595.67$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.6610651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Heat54c555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.723553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Magic50c468$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e9…fd22backed Heat50c446$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe89a…6552backed Heat50c428$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Magic46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x640e…f2d4backed Heat54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Heat49c391.12$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Magic48c324.52$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7531643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Magic49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15338242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Magic47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15945646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Magic51c263.78$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.251,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Heat54c261.11$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14111754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat54c233.49$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9657650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Heat54c230$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-64.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Magic47c219.45$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3117041.8%71 W · 99 L-11.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d38…71efbacked Heat55c219.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Magic48c208$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1651451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Heat54c204.54$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4576552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Magic46c202$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0840146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Heat51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10217148%82 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Heat54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810348.5%50 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb090…28d1backed Magic50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.86567.7%44 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Magic51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0819543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Magic51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0817944.1%79 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Magic51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0838152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb5…6e63backed Magic50c183.83$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.634658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic48c181.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.173,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Heat53c176.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.352,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Magic47c170.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.216256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Magic47c152.33$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7421546.5%100 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Magic46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1734854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Magic47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.556547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.549351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Magic48c149.17$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5768542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfedd…32c4backed Magic47c121.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.289655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Magic49c118.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5962744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf219…76bbbacked Magic50c114$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Heat54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020350.2%102 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…53d7backed Magic51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.95865.5%38 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x289e…4df8backed Magic51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.95955.9%33 W · 26 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.