NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Heat: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9964b27a812f22fed094c3e5f0549c512fab952dea4af4cfd29b1438b962c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab5b…316cbacked Magic | 74c | 12,521$9,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Heat | 25c | 7,500$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 68c | 7,095$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.85 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Heat | 63c | 4,122$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.1 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f6…8f75backed Heat | 39c | 1,458$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Magic | 77c | 1,167$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.54 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Heat | 17c | 996.72$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 38c | 937.84$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.46 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Heat | 25c | 584.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…cd62backed Heat | 19c | 448$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Heat | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…bb0dbacked Magic | 43c | 365.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Magic | 42c | 358.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2508…e25cbacked Heat | 58c | 352.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked Heat | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Heat | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 342 | 48.8%167 W · 175 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Heat | 30c | 184.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Heat | 10c | 163$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Heat | 10c | 163$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Magic | 38c | 141.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Heat | 36c | 139.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…d153backed Heat | 57c | 124.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa88…9ff5backed Heat | 57c | 123.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Heat | 57c | 116.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…a103backed Magic | 43c | 104.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Heat | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Magic | 69c | 69.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Heat | 27c | 59.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Heat | 45c | 53.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Heat | 60c | 41.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Magic | 40c | 41.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Magic | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Heat | 28c | 37.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Magic | 43c | 36.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Heat | 41c | 32.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Heat | 62c | 26.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…eae7backed Magic | 73c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked Heat | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…657bbacked Heat | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Heat | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 279 | 42.7%119 W · 160 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Magic | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-1.5)Magic won
- 1H Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jett Howard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jevon Carter: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Magic vs. HeatMagic won
- Magic vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Magic won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.