TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Team Falcons, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,107

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,985 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d2e…896dbacked BetBoom Team59c42,497$25,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,448.257040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Team Falcons41c40,000$16,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,40020354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked BetBoom Team61c29,479$17,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,537.0814050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Team Falcons40c12,602$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Team Falcons40c12,000$4,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,790.759248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked BetBoom Team60c12,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Team Falcons38c10,088$3,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.4967041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons56c7,231$4,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,015.8325555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team Falcons40c7,078$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.2717643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed BetBoom Team61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Team Falcons48c4,750$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.5736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…b4d8backed Team Falcons43c4,606$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BetBoom Team45c4,563$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.931,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BetBoom Team61c4,394$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.623848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Team Falcons41c4,297$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.5419546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed BetBoom Team57c4,262$2,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.4737157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Team Falcons42c4,034$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,694.319448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BetBoom Team58c3,899$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.671,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Team Falcons40c3,750$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009834.7%34 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Team Falcons39c3,538$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Team Falcons43c3,316$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.825536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf886…2620backed BetBoom Team58c3,151$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.4210359.2%61 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Team Falcons39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.9921945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89dd…f662backed BetBoom Team56c2,991$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.96940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BetBoom Team57c2,985$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.2446749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5838…8ca6backed BetBoom Team57c2,840$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.195152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Team Falcons40c2,514$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005135.3%18 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BetBoom Team60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00066851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked Team Falcons42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9934559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked BetBoom Team45c2,257$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.120755.1%114 W · 93 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BetBoom Team60c2,250$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90060248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Team Falcons45c2,172$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.3516949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed BetBoom Team44c2,152$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.19748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked BetBoom Team55c2,045$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.1725655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team54c2,000$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.62,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed BetBoom Team59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8204647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BetBoom Team60c1,722$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.035,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked BetBoom Team63c1,619$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.0553545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed BetBoom Team30c1,590$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.6935054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed Team Falcons41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61518254.9%100 W · 82 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed BetBoom Team59c1,473$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.098540%34 W · 51 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons59c1,445$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.2915053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Team Falcons43c1,400$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.6855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6a…925fbacked BetBoom Team58c1,346$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.175742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked BetBoom Team44c1,195$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.4938844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Team Falcons41c1,172$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.428051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Team Falcons60c1,161$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.694452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BetBoom Team58c1,111$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.621,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed BetBoom Team62c1,100$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.829551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons56c1,074$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.5435242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Falcons39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x924b…4aeebacked Team Falcons40c1,005$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed BetBoom Team57c999.99$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.9944939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ee…68f3backed Team Falcons58c997.83$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed Team Falcons43c930.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011551.3%59 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Team Falcons42c920$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.45044%22 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed BetBoom Team42c911.11$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.442,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked BetBoom Team60c872.01$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.82347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Team Falcons40c860.83$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.339044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked BetBoom Team40c859.99$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51615355.6%85 W · 68 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Team Falcons50c826.49$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9513754%74 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Team Falcons56c821.34$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.8321460.3%129 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked BetBoom Team61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.842050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked BetBoom Team43c803.82$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.8235745.4%162 W · 195 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked BetBoom Team41c791.08$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.625658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Falcons43c781.95$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.562,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Team Falcons39c769$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f63…9551backed Team Falcons57c723.04$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.774252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Team Falcons54c723$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.423351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Team Falcons58c678.5$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.5819351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed BetBoom Team43c663.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.2821351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed BetBoom Team45c662.18$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.210452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed BetBoom Team58c624.83$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3347053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x884b…661cbacked Team Falcons42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529429.8%28 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Team Falcons39c576.92$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22511044.5%49 W · 61 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Team Falcons42c518.69$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6848845.7%223 W · 265 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed BetBoom Team59c509.83$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.836956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b75…6bb0backed BetBoom Team59c508.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.565345.3%24 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed BetBoom Team41c506.7$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.2255738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.031,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Team Falcons40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked BetBoom Team60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed BetBoom Team60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2005538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed BetBoom Team58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21014650.7%74 W · 72 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Team Falcons40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2131…7325backed BetBoom Team60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c10…26eabacked BetBoom Team60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+61.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9559…9fd7backed BetBoom Team61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1955343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Team Falcons38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19013844.2%61 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Team Falcons51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510148.5%49 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Team Falcons56c499.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9926251.1%134 W · 128 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Falcons39c499.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9958343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked BetBoom Team40c499.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9820248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked BetBoom Team40c482.09$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.2515646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Team Falcons42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Team Falcons59c446.66$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.049549.5%47 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed BetBoom Team61c443.11$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0144343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked BetBoom Team61c425.65$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16689248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cc…6193backed Team Falcons43c409.3$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed Team Falcons44c406.21$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1713127.5%36 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.