Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Ultra Prime vs. ThunderTalk Gaming
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5116dd8cc8c45c5bcd3d8aacbc8d35106417b662258baa060744a9ab830645e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ultra Primeof Ultra Prime, ThunderTalk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Ultra Prime | 36c | 44,708$16,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,611.49 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 11,064$7,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,080.65 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked ThunderTalk | 63c | 10,892$6,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,873.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…fae0backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Ultra Prime | 42c | 6,889$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,022.14 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed ThunderTalk | 56c | 5,462$3,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 4,118$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.27 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed ThunderTalk | 41c | 3,295$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Ultra Prime | 62c | 3,205$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.58 | 273 | 46.9%128 W · 145 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked Ultra Prime | 64c | 3,130$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.84 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 2,730$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.91 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…3db0backed ThunderTalk | 17c | 2,100$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ultra Prime | 9c | 1,952$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.53 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Ultra Prime | 4c | 1,786$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.7 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,705$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed ThunderTalk | 46c | 1,080$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 525 | 38.9%204 W · 321 L | +18.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,078$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,028$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.5 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed ThunderTalk | 65c | 1,013$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.24 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,003$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked ThunderTalk | 64c | 1,003$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.72 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked ThunderTalk | 78c | 997.63$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.33 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed ThunderTalk | 38c | 923.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Ultra Prime | 42c | 776.32$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.82 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Ultra Prime | 44c | 725.19$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.34 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed ThunderTalk | 77c | 718.34$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.62 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked ThunderTalk | 75c | 713.8$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.47 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ultra Prime | 39c | 700$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.64 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…39a7backed Ultra Prime | 6c | 650.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.84 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed ThunderTalk | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.6 | 388 | 37.4%145 W · 243 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed ThunderTalk | 57c | 600$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed ThunderTalk | 36c | 551.19$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed ThunderTalk | 56c | 427.82$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 484 | 48.6%235 W · 249 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed ThunderTalk | 39c | 347.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 538 | 29.4%158 W · 380 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Ultra Prime | 31c | 319.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.34 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…a916backed Ultra Prime | 64c | 312.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed ThunderTalk | 47c | 306.15$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 298.1$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.56 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked ThunderTalk | 57c | 297.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked ThunderTalk | 63c | 288.31$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Ultra Prime | 35c | 280$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Ultra Prime | 10c | 280$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…6bc4backed Ultra Prime | 59c | 258.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed ThunderTalk | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked ThunderTalk | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed ThunderTalk | 50c | 244.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Ultra Prime | 33c | 230$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed ThunderTalk | 75c | 225.69$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 504 | 55%277 W · 227 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked ThunderTalk | 44c | 220.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed ThunderTalk | 32c | 214$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed ThunderTalk | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked ThunderTalk | 57c | 199.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 181 | 65.7%119 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed ThunderTalk | 61c | 195$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 431 | 48%207 W · 224 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Ultra Prime | 41c | 183.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked ThunderTalk | 36c | 182.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 91 | 27.5%25 W · 66 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked ThunderTalk | 56c | 173.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 462 | 58.4%270 W · 192 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked ThunderTalk | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked ThunderTalk | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed ThunderTalk | 62c | 92.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked ThunderTalk | 50c | 91.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e49…9714backed ThunderTalk | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked ThunderTalk | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 641 | 46.5%298 W · 343 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Ultra Prime | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 228 | 58.3%133 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…445dbacked Ultra Prime | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…4f20backed Ultra Prime | 23c | 53.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed ThunderTalk | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…79dbbacked ThunderTalk | 45c | 32.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked ThunderTalk | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa1…c02dbacked Ultra Prime | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked ThunderTalk | 59c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Ultra Prime | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…f594backed ThunderTalk | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.