TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,404 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes15c9,965$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.144,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b7…f854backed Yes25c2,710$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes19c1,419$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.251,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe218…98e8backed No75c1,360$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1988…7bc5backed No75c1,350$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes11c955.69$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7932133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…2dafbacked Yes33c935.45$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.095521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No80c864.07$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No80c848$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4242857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes10c684.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3946824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c615.46$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes26c498.69$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.71,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c478.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.951,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes15c387.41$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.411,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No75c303.37$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c281.95$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8316456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes27c260.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes20c242.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4335018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes26c230$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.666950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes16c209.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.888111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No76c200.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes35c199.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes28c186.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.637727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes23c175.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c161.33$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.133,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes14c144.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20258%2 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76cc…9db8backed Yes33c142.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2870%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes22c136.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes17c134.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes20c131.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3713531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes24c123.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes25c121.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c121.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.973,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes29c121.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c119$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes9c118.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.767126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes25c117$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6760%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c113.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c113.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes18c110.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c107.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…8a87backed Yes16c104.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.393324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No77c104.2$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4711878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes29c102.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No77c102.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.910780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3416336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c99.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.991,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes12c99.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9933232.8%109 W · 223 L+18.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae03…dca2backed Yes31c98.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…aa51backed Yes18c95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c85.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.921,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes21c85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.655129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes12c80.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103920.5%8 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes29c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes16c79.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No77c68.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No78c64.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…841ebacked No79c63.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.17862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No78c57.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e6…8311backed Yes24c56.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes33c55.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4513058.5%76 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No66c55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.749038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No76c52.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6614071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c49.56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.973,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes29c48.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.827638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes36c47.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No73c47.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7726169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No71c41.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c28…73a4backed No73c41.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.091681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2818…ac64backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd1…372abacked Yes28c37.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No74c31.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.288248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No79c31.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6127756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6a…8f52backed No79c31.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.523956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No72c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.833357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No65c27.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b714backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No74c23.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1114548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.227648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.610371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2044…2fc5backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid+8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6af…fc2fbacked No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.233164.5%20 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.756985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c17.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.182,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No75c14.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.595375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No72c13.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.919643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a36…27bebacked No79c13.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.885100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No80c12.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.586446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x688c…e05fbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.