Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x511b155c740865e7818fff189e5f7186539fbc27a0f0cc0dc65d96c1a25ca06f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,404 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 9,965$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…f854backed Yes | 25c | 2,710$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 1,419$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe218…98e8backed No | 75c | 1,360$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…7bc5backed No | 75c | 1,350$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 955.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 33c | 935.45$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.09 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 80c | 864.07$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 848$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 684.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 615.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 498.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 478.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 387.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 303.37$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 281.95$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 27c | 260.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 20c | 242.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 26c | 230$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 16c | 209.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 200.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 199.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 28c | 186.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 23c | 175.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 161.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 14c | 144.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…9db8backed Yes | 33c | 142.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 134.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 20c | 131.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 24c | 123.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 121.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 121.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 29c | 121.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 119$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 9c | 118.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 117$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 113.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 113.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 18c | 110.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 107.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 16c | 104.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 104.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 29c | 102.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 102.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 12c | 99.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…dca2backed Yes | 31c | 98.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…aa51backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 85.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked Yes | 12c | 80.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 79.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 68.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 79c | 63.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…8311backed Yes | 24c | 56.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 33c | 55.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 52.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 49.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 29c | 48.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 36c | 47.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 73c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 71c | 41.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…ac64backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 28c | 37.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 74c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 79c | 31.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 79c | 31.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b714backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 75c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…27bebacked No | 79c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…e05fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.