Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2edeb1e45ee969418c5c89beeef9033bec293ebf2c6ec38118bd3ce4f508a980
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,126 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 5,689$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 2c | 3,285$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fc…358bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,890$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 79c | 2,141$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.89 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,912$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,730$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…efdabacked No | 70c | 1,450$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…c6f8backed No | 70c | 1,440$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,415$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 989.85$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed Yes | 31c | 850$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked No | 69c | 850$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 673.02$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 582.9$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.12 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 38c | 520.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 64c | 430.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 423.35$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 60c | 418.04$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 355.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 350.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 344.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 43c | 277.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 37c | 273.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 32c | 206.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 197.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 70c | 190.32$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 173.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 172.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 169.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 20c | 159.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 152.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 146.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8596backed Yes | 39c | 146.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 68c | 142.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 136.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 30c | 135.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 133.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…0d75backed Yes | 41c | 131$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 120.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…9db8backed Yes | 44c | 114.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 43c | 105.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 99.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 70c | 89.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 42c | 87.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Yes | 23c | 87.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 85.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 36c | 82.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 24c | 81.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 37c | 81.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 24c | 80.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 42c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 79.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 78.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 73.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 73.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 37c | 73.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 23c | 68.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 33c | 66.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 66.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 30c | 65.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 31c | 64.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 64.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 31c | 64.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 64.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 62.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 58.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…dca2backed Yes | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 50.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…7a8cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 49.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 43c | 46.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 28c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…d506backed Yes | 40c | 40.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…ac64backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…f913backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 34c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 38.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.