Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7950ce05450204c3cd5b3733c91a82741d8112749b5e9fab371e58d50bea72ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 4,911$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,730.91 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,503$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,412.76 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,994$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 32c | 1,589$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.19 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked Yes | 1c | 1,576$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.34 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,384$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.64 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,153$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.41 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 1,152$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.37 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 2c | 995$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.01 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 65c | 908.96$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.88 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 868.7$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.37 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 75c | 754.22$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 58c | 727.88$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 725.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.49 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 18c | 700.89$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.67 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 2c | 699.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.09 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 78c | 693.39$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 665.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 664.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 79c | 637.77$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 633.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 30c | 627.42$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.13 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 6c | 580$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 2c | 578.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…1537backed Yes | 34c | 575.37$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 503.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.25 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 500.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.67 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 480.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 6c | 416.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.9 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 408.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.32 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 65c | 377.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.22 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 71c | 377.63$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 37c | 371.33$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 9c | 368.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 73c | 341.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 16c | 315.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 313.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 16c | 312.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 305.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 11c | 281.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.12 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 9c | 275.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.07 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 269.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 48c | 264.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.97 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 60c | 263.54$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 36c | 251.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 237.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 8c | 209.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.72 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 6c | 176.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 161.79$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 63c | 157.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked Yes | 78c | 150.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 66c | 149$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 65c | 147.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 77c | 145$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 142.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 74c | 138.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 66c | 130.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 66c | 128.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 126.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 73c | 126.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 11c | 125$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 120.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 118.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 39c | 116.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 76c | 110.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 109.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…d838backed Yes | 13c | 108.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 10c | 107.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 76c | 105.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…75e3backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 12c | 102.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 11c | 99.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…bdc4backed Yes | 80c | 97.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked Yes | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 66c | 96.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 69c | 90.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 68c | 82.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…ab39backed No | 28c | 79.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 16c | 74.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 69c | 73.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 74c | 72.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed Yes | 28c | 72.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…921cbacked Yes | 65c | 69.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 34c | 66.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8596backed Yes | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 55c | 65.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 66c | 57.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 50c | 54.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 75c | 52.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.