Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x455b96fa4d0c9e8ad97a8997f4fd29d81b7c8f72f84a6a0edef4963e2cb0401b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,218 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,693$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.09 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,642$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.72 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 14c | 884.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 13c | 881.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 12c | 791.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 734.76$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 14c | 676.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 649.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 5c | 628.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 8c | 621.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 8c | 575.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 20c | 511.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…1537backed Yes | 67c | 476.84$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 436.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 428.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 60c | 400$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.3 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 18c | 389.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 300.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 17c | 295.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 16c | 284.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 43c | 281.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 16c | 264.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 18c | 258.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 25c | 239.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 60c | 221$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 213.36$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 201.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 198.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 198.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 195.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 73c | 188.67$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 186.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 52c | 180.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 176.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 45c | 169.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 55c | 164.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 161$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 154.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 154.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 154.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 144.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 8c | 141$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 19c | 137.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 78c | 127$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 121.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 120.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ece3backed Yes | 29c | 117.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 45c | 111.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 17c | 108.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 70c | 105.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 98.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 96.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 14c | 96.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 13c | 96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 95.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 22c | 91.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 86.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 86.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 77.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 39c | 77.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 76c | 73.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked No | 40c | 72.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 70.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 69.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 38c | 68.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 23c | 67.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 66.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 18c | 65.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 64.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 24c | 64.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 62.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 16c | 60.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 54.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 53.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc803…4ee6backed Yes | 58c | 51.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 43c | 51.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.