Serie A · resolved market
Will Juventus vs. AC Milan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53387c19ae80ef7b5a7a5cd5aa80e794b7f098c9707071d3622ca1432b5b5d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 49c | 60,000$29,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,299.66 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 27,651$14,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,583.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…a307backed Yes | 33c | 18,351$6,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,231.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 46c | 15,460$7,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,295.13 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 67c | 9,000$6,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,030 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…831cbacked Yes | 78c | 6,480$5,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 6,363$4,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,202.48 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 31c | 5,973$1,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.13 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 3,828$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.85 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 58c | 3,603$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.14 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed No | 69c | 2,006$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 41c | 1,905$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked No | 69c | 1,071$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…aeedbacked No | 70c | 928.57$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 47c | 730.17$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 492$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.32 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 31c | 439.42$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 437.5$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed No | 69c | 428$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Yes | 46c | 417.93$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 50c | 247$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…1f96backed Yes | 46c | 246.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 240$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 30c | 173.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 29c | 166.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 51c | 135.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 56c | 134.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +220%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 31c | 124.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 64c | 122$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 30c | 106.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 67c | 90.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 31c | 90.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…5bc3backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 31c | 73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 69c | 72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 32c | 63.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked Yes | 41c | 53.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 53.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 48c | 50.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 69c | 43.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6adf…f52bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 65c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juventus vs. AC Milan end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Juventus win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.