Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a64bfa35012d3e389f2406b4320a1c95a16e87711958cf6e5660e899e8def8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 770.23$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 68c | 625$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.05 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 624.76$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 68c | 616.02$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 608.41$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 530.36$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.36 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 393.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 35c | 359.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 66c | 303.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 244.59$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 215.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 201.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 62c | 200.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 39c | 192.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 187.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 37c | 182.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 59c | 172.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 158$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 145.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 39c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 71c | 130.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 41c | 126.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 71c | 117$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 113.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 39c | 103.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 77c | 103.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…cee0backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 98.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 96.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 39c | 90.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 58c | 90.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 70c | 76.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 75c | 74.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 69c | 74.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 34c | 71.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 70.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 66c | 68.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 61c | 67.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 56c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 33c | 65.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 35c | 63.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 68c | 62.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 34c | 61.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 66c | 60.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 58.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 57.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 66c | 54.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 38c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 51.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 53c | 51.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 41c | 45.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 64c | 45.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 72c | 44.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 56c | 43.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 38c | 43.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 42.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 33c | 42.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 57c | 41.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 40.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 39c | 39.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 61c | 39.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 59c | 37.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 68c | 37.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 42c | 36.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 42c | 33.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 66c | 32.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 66c | 31.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 57c | 31.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 56c | 29.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 55c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 64c | 29.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 73c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 58c | 28.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.