Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08dd5a089accc507a751d25b9ed6e1c94e0f8e5ad3abdad7d400ede08475f02b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 30c | 1,249$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 24c | 845.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 624.12$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 610.3$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 502.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 488.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 468.08$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 418.05$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 365.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 43c | 290.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 245.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 202.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 195$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 187.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 18c | 181.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 156.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 134.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 133$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 130.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 77c | 130.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 21c | 128.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 80c | 127.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 113.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 113.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 110.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 22c | 107.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 100.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 19c | 96.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 96.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 94.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 93.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 26c | 92.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 32c | 92.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 78c | 90.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 33c | 90.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 88.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 88.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 32c | 88.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 23c | 85.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 77c | 79.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 30c | 77.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 77.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 26c | 74.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 14c | 71.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 18c | 69.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 43c | 69.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 68.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 63.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 61.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 60.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 34c | 58.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 73c | 54.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 54.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 77c | 53.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 23c | 50.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 63c | 43.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 43.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 43.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 65c | 42.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 68c | 40.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 37.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 67c | 35.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 79c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 70c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 26.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 24.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 77c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed No | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…6ec9backed No | 79c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.