TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bebopof Black Phoenix, Bebop
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7460…de6ebacked Black Phoenix54c4,541$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.7443951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Bebop55c2,885$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.251,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed Black Phoenix51c2,822$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.9123356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Bebop56c2,156$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.961,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x609d…3fa9backed Black Phoenix60c1,896$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.579963.6%63 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Bebop49c1,610$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.941,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bebop58c1,604$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.695,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed Black Phoenix27c1,434$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8729543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Black Phoenix54c1,432$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7774235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Bebop57c1,256$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.947139.4%28 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Black Phoenix32c1,234$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.091,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Bebop45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6608047.5%38 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Black Phoenix39c1,135$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.783,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Black Phoenix51c999.96$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9851252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Bebop47c896.38$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.4812846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bebop44c891$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.7161948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Black Phoenix48c751.99$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.2135153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked Bebop61c656.8$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.88454.8%46 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Black Phoenix48c655.74$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.7741050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed Black Phoenix48c625.58$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42d…94d3backed Bebop48c615.11$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.566152.5%32 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed Black Phoenix45c600.85$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.33852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Bebop53c549.98$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.162,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed Black Phoenix36c526.93$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.214139.7%56 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Bebop50c466.53$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.023,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed Black Phoenix39c460$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17813449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Black Phoenix62c449.03$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.45044%22 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Black Phoenix47c420$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.231749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Bebop45c398.78$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.281,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfe…4a26backed Bebop47c365$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Bebop48c364.75$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6747054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked Black Phoenix37c357.51$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.213537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Black Phoenix56c357.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Bebop60c335$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.3912071.7%86 W · 34 L+16.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbabf…320bbacked Black Phoenix30c329.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Black Phoenix11c321.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.712,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Black Phoenix39c316.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.623,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Black Phoenix33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1426554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Bebop46c288.5$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8216550.3%83 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Black Phoenix34c286.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.542,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Bebop57c279.44$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.164,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…03d0backed Black Phoenix37c267.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a30…7039backed Black Phoenix34c264.44$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Black Phoenix39c255.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.352,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Bebop73c252.95$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.483537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9929…15a8backed Bebop60c248.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2217163.7%109 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac33…fda0backed Black Phoenix32c247.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Black Phoenix38c246.02$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.282,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9562…fbd4backed Bebop70c235.36$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.471275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Bebop60c233$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.352,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Black Phoenix51c231.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.641,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e09…22febacked Bebop64c231.29$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.073164.5%20 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Bebop60c229.46$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.581,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Black Phoenix25c210.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.562248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3870…c3dbbacked Bebop47c207.06$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.741233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Bebop49c204.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6573948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Bebop45c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1244747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Black Phoenix52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10448851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d24…0834backed Bebop58c189.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.89683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Black Phoenix24c182.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.341,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed Black Phoenix28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Bebop72c174$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.628644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Black Phoenix32c172.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.034,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Bebop46c159.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.372,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Bebop54c148.72$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0879951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Black Phoenix36c148.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.622,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Black Phoenix54c146.3$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7912750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed Black Phoenix35c144.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6532138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x717b…a128backed Bebop75c137.8$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.452661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Bebop45c137.57$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.2137848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Black Phoenix16c134.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.044,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Black Phoenix48c126.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9561054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Bebop47c123.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3758745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Bebop50c123$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.592,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Bebop47c122.84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1117055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Bebop46c120.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.831,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3783…0038backed Bebop47c120.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.857638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Black Phoenix56c117.86$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa8…efa7backed Bebop47c111$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.834365.1%28 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x93d7…c7a6backed Bebop75c108.27$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0718645.2%84 W · 102 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed Black Phoenix42c104$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0521850.9%111 W · 107 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6928…1075backed Black Phoenix45c102.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.241729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Black Phoenix60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6064058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Black Phoenix15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed Black Phoenix54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414439.6%57 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed Black Phoenix38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3833048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Bebop44c96.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.339440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Bebop53c94.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.398856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Black Phoenix25c94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.512049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Bebop65c91.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0449850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ac…2fb7backed Bebop78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.917866.3%118 W · 60 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed Bebop74c88$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8152369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Bebop56c87.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6119050%95 W · 95 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed Black Phoenix35c86.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5618951.3%97 W · 92 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x403f…105abacked Black Phoenix36c82.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed Black Phoenix45c78.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0417444.3%77 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe6…2faebacked Black Phoenix46c77.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.947245.8%33 W · 39 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Bebop50c76.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5735141.6%146 W · 205 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed Bebop60c76.8$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7240457.2%231 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f12…3f91backed Black Phoenix53c76.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.062347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.