Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5481c2b166f974b71744c43c805149f9247305490277c1d056706d36536ddc63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 660.3$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.18 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 35c | 438.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 275 | 49.8%137 W · 138 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 293.7$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 243.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 240.18$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 60c | 235.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 225.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 29c | 225.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 222.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 209.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 196.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 183.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 152.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 152.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 127.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 48c | 122.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 112.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 110.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 109.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 409 | 37.9%155 W · 254 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 83.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 78.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 77.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 65c | 77.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 74.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 73.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 41c | 72.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 35c | 71.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 67.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 43c | 66.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 66.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 67c | 65.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 33c | 55.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 53.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 51.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 31c | 50.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 69c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 47.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 46c | 45.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 34c | 40.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 39.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 658 | 38.8%255 W · 403 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 51c | 37.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 36.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 29c | 35.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 34.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 65c | 33.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 899 | 29%261 W · 638 L | -22.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 33c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 31.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 35c | 31.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4f98backed No | 68c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 50c | 29.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 281 | 50.9%143 W · 138 L | +24.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 403 | 45.9%185 W · 218 L | +29.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 45c | 28.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 28.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 28.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 27.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 27.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 26.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 24.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 69c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 281 | 69.4%195 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,046 | 68.7%719 W · 327 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.