Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbac0e206c6ab920066b006c66267a47614d439fff3c51245dd90be254492e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 57c | 1,489$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.83 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 60c | 596.25$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 20c | 566.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 43c | 455.85$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 449.63$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 374.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 307$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 306.05$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 293.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 44c | 251.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 227.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 149.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 146.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 143.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 45c | 135.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 55c | 131.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 41c | 124.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 113.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 112.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 110.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 97.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 62c | 81.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 58c | 80.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 77.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 42c | 71.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 53c | 70.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 59c | 68.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 60c | 64.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 63.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 60.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 60.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 56.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 55.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 41c | 51.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 42c | 51.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 47.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 45.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2896backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 60c | 43.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 47c | 43.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 41c | 42.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 39c | 41.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 67c | 40.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 40.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 42c | 39.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 52c | 38.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 39c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 36.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 34.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 50c | 34.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 31.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 48c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 43c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 63c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 52c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 41c | 26.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 25.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 23.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 54c | 20.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…0653backed Yes | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.