Movies · resolved market
Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x549419d728f8b15501d4f17f3f56440c53043caaeb1a00abe188ba94f48fb316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e1…b0babacked No | 0c | 56,605$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…f399backed No | 0c | 25,582$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 0c | 20,288$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 0c | 17,275$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 78c | 11,948$9,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 19c | 10,000$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 26c | 7,515$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.97 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 35c | 5,002$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.99 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 66c | 4,575$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.11 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 1c | 2,788$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 33c | 839.92$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 65c | 645.02$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.1 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 13c | 536.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 69c | 521.41$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 512.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 74c | 327.7$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 68c | 290$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 43c | 280.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 19c | 275$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 259.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 74c | 253.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 250.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 37c | 168.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 58c | 163.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 48c | 144.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 14c | 129.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 121.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 70c | 78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 77c | 65.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb45…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 58c | 49.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Yes | 64c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 38m?this page
- Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 43m?No won
- Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 48m?No won
- Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 53m?No won
- Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 53m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.