Earnings · resolved market
Will General Motors (GM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ff4c7d4bcfbc76164c59fb3953401630acbf18ac6bdcae10bcb1159c5f010e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 14c | 1,661$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 11c | 1,446$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 933.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 911$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…f0bebacked No | 12c | 702.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 610.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 532.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…9bb1backed No | 7c | 434.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 13c | 373.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…bdbfbacked No | 14c | 328.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 15c | 300.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed No | 15c | 270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 79c | 260.85$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 10c | 208.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 194.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked No | 16c | 192.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 180.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 14c | 163.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…6a61backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 82.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed No | 30c | 72.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked No | 17c | 69.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…ed51backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.