NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5610cab3529b08ec1d016273a35a684118d3339979e9b534e9b658e8433412a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Under | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 2,735$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,682$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 2,029$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.67 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4720…007bbacked Over | 44c | 1,125$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 57c | 1,005$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.84 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 833.92$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.93 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 575$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 40c | 508.76$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…89e5backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 419.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 43c | 327.41$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 282.66$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.55 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Under | 57c | 247.95$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 229.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Under | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 52c | 159.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 145.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 43c | 136.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…a07abacked Over | 43c | 129.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…ed19backed Over | 43c | 118.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 106.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 43c | 82.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 43c | 82.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 81.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 43c | 72.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 64.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 60c | 64.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 55.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 60c | 51.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 37.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 45c | 37.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 47c | 21.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 56c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-5.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Kings won
- Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KingsSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.