NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1aa846cde4406f486950847d30911ab2251b79aa37972f048d6e7040c7b7e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Kings | 30c | 918.28$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Suns | 59c | 692$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.06 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 70c | 674.64$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Suns | 63c | 662.5$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.06 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…bf46backed Kings | 27c | 259.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Kings | 21c | 251.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Suns | 48c | 103.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Suns | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked Kings | 50c | 50.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…627cbacked Kings | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kings | 42c | 42.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Suns | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Suns | 65c | 40.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Suns | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Suns | 69c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Kings | 48c | 21.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Suns | 69c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Kings: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-5.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Suns (-6.5)Kings won
- Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Green: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Green: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Suns (-10.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-9.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KingsSuns won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 222.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.