TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Anyone's Legendof Top Esports, Anyone's Legend
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$399,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,188 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2302…d6d2backed Top Esports22c45,107$9,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,921.076826.5%18 W · 50 L-10.4wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-46.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Anyone's Legend77c41,475$32,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,457.981,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed Top Esports45c31,482$14,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,2586159%36 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Top Esports1c17,141$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.881242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d2…4186backed Anyone's Legend55c15,787$8,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,136.136440.6%26 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Top Esports3c14,969$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9813037.7%49 W · 81 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…f43ebacked Top Esports43c13,840$5,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,967.428847.7%42 W · 46 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Anyone's Legend57c10,989$6,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,725.4253750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Anyone's Legend53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70014549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Top Esports45c9,333$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Top Esports43c9,302$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0008951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Top Esports0c8,412$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.732,24037.3%836 W · 1,404 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Anyone's Legend55c7,506$4,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,367.831,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Top Esports43c6,611$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.811,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Top Esports1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305873.6%21 W · 566 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+176.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Anyone's Legend55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Anyone's Legend52c5,802$3,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.5770456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Anyone's Legend43c5,625$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.8490937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Anyone's Legend60c5,343$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.321,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Anyone's Legend55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Anyone's Legend54c4,920$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.361,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b7…dfd8backed Top Esports43c4,767$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0501428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed Top Esports43c4,083$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.37936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2437…432abacked Top Esports22c4,070$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.393030%9 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed Top Esports47c4,058$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90017729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Top Esports43c4,048$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74267931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Anyone's Legend53c3,611$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.277958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Anyone's Legend57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.9986136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Anyone's Legend55c3,438$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.8221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked Top Esports47c3,216$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.424858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Anyone's Legend55c3,000$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3651,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Anyone's Legend57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Anyone's Legend78c2,977$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.9525243.7%110 W · 142 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Anyone's Legend58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.2122547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Anyone's Legend56c2,340$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.659750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9597…efcabacked Anyone's Legend57c2,193$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdde2…213bbacked Top Esports43c2,093$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e3…770ebacked Top Esports45c2,064$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9292669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d4…c0eebacked Top Esports48c2,057$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.267754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Top Esports43c2,013$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.7732457.7%187 W · 137 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Top Esports46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92010243.1%44 W · 58 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Top Esports40c2,000$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.51,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed Top Esports43c2,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9847347.4%224 W · 249 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Top Esports36c1,901$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68332440.4%131 W · 193 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Top Esports45c1,837$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.0799338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Anyone's Legend56c1,800$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.9711936.1%43 W · 76 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Anyone's Legend57c1,760$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.848243.2%208 W · 274 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe607…eaa0backed Top Esports56c1,617$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.5710467.3%70 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Top Esports44c1,576$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.0541843.8%183 W · 235 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa304…0b05backed Top Esports47c1,538$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.653638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Anyone's Legend57c1,520$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.4310648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Top Esports47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.9984450.1%423 W · 421 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed Anyone's Legend58c1,423$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.4710941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc8…fa26backed Top Esports42c1,400$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5881942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18c6…9634backed Anyone's Legend56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Top Esports45c1,344$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8837641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Anyone's Legend57c1,332$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.841,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Anyone's Legend56c1,331$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.511,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdac…c44bbacked Anyone's Legend57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d9…01e3backed Anyone's Legend79c1,300$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2732360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33b4…2fd5backed Anyone's Legend58c1,300$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23e3…23c6backed Top Esports45c1,295$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Top Esports42c1,280$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5423,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x444d…d5febacked Top Esports12c1,211$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Anyone's Legend53c1,185$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8246451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Top Esports45c1,175$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.912941.1%53 W · 76 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad08…67a5backed Top Esports32c1,155$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.162646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Anyone's Legend57c1,135$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.6432753.5%175 W · 152 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Anyone's Legend55c1,134$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.7928253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44b3…1fcbbacked Top Esports48c1,132$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a31cbacked Top Esports44c1,080$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.220939.7%83 W · 126 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Anyone's Legend60c1,054$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.32,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Anyone's Legend68c1,022$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.3186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Top Esports43c1,005$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.296553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Top Esports22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22038837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Top Esports1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111497.4%11 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Anyone's Legend57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1144…b7b5backed Top Esports3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb03f…9429backed Top Esports45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9914324.5%35 W · 108 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Top Esports41c963.6$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.9553139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b94…d382backed Anyone's Legend56c942.78$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.444119.5%8 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-54.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Top Esports45c941$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.451947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…ed9ebacked Top Esports22c899.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Top Esports21c889.78$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8538624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac08…d29dbacked Top Esports23c883.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004250%21 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8c…3f96backed Top Esports23c861.48$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.149349.5%46 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Top Esports44c820.98$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0764849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Anyone's Legend55c818.18$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1811959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Top Esports16c813$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.331,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a35…de38backed Top Esports45c808$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.65230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Anyone's Legend58c800$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3362,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…22d9backed Anyone's Legend54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36834868.4%238 W · 110 L+23.5wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Top Esports45c770.66$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7235243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Top Esports30c690.6$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21036852.2%192 W · 176 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc147…6700backed Top Esports45c666.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Anyone's Legend56c659.97$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.3928843.8%126 W · 162 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Anyone's Legend60c640$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2569750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Anyone's Legend79c620.25$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2516254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Top Esports43c616.28$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26512440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Anyone's Legend45c602.03$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.132650%163 W · 163 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.