CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563dd81a01ee00d16be1855e8447a4ddd87a33803bde99852ba16013f8abf4a6

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Misa Esportsof Misa Esports, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,503 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc0f1…8680backed Fire Flux Esports	52c	6,396$3,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,344.75	2,522	43%1,085 W · 1,437 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Fire Flux Esports	46c	1,507$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.66	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Misa Esports	59c	1,396$827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.41	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Fire Flux Esports	31c	1,395$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.26	1,302	41.2%536 W · 766 L	-50.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Misa Esports	59c	1,312$771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.51	3,459	29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L	-279.9wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Fire Flux Esports	31c	897.44$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.72	2,136	42.9%916 W · 1,220 L	-68.1wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…ac88backed Fire Flux Esports	79c	876.68$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-67%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe033…7ea5backed Fire Flux Esports	61c	654.15$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Misa Esports	58c	555.43$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.4	3,910	36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L	-197.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33db…b673backed Fire Flux Esports	74c	496.96$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	74cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Fire Flux Esports	37c	451.31$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.03	758	33.4%253 W · 505 L	-48.9wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-31%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Misa Esports	42c	414.77$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.64	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Misa Esports	72c	400$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	405	42%170 W · 235 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Fire Flux Esports	39c	389.19$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.47	883	30.7%271 W · 612 L	-63.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae0b…8c5ebacked Fire Flux Esports	44c	360.45$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.05	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ba4…9e2dbacked Fire Flux Esports	25c	326.02$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.51	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fire Flux Esports	23c	296$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.22	1,591	46.6%741 W · 850 L	+30.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Misa Esports	37c	222.05$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.05	1,078	32%345 W · 733 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports	59c	219.69$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.64	4,933	37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L	-249.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Fire Flux Esports	48c	205.68$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.38	1,630	43.2%704 W · 926 L	-32.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3702…9b19backed Fire Flux Esports	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	95	33.7%32 W · 63 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d4…c512backed Misa Esports	66c	185.67$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.9	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-7.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f90…8ed1backed Fire Flux Esports	45c	185$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Misa Esports	55c	178.44$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.93	2,473	34.6%855 W · 1,618 L	-188.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Fire Flux Esports	26c	160$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	321	39.9%128 W · 193 L	-13.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Misa Esports	43c	158.18$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.43	655	46.9%307 W · 348 L	+18.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Fire Flux Esports	77c	154.01$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.59	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Misa Esports	34c	149.22$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.22	145	43.4%63 W · 82 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Misa Esports	61c	149.02$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.73	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Misa Esports	59c	146.8$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.81	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fire Flux Esports	67c	125.46$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.38	2,326	45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Misa Esports	35c	120.74$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.08	754	38.9%293 W · 461 L	-38.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked Fire Flux Esports	75c	106.57$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.63	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6b…218bbacked Misa Esports	42c	103.92$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.27	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.24per pick	40cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd289…74e8backed Fire Flux Esports	58c	99.68$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.03	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Misa Esports	35c	96.41$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.07	1,848	41.7%770 W · 1,078 L	-69.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Fire Flux Esports	74c	95.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.47	3,202	45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L	-79.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Fire Flux Esports	43c	92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	2,362	46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L	-53.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1a…72f3backed Fire Flux Esports	68c	91.86$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd97c…f39fbacked Misa Esports	38c	89.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.79	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Misa Esports	41c	88.34$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.92	186	47.3%88 W · 98 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Misa Esports	36c	86$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.23	630	38.6%243 W · 387 L	-26.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8bd…fc74backed Misa Esports	25c	80$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	308	31.2%96 W · 212 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Misa Esports	32c	80$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.67	2,110	47.2%995 W · 1,115 L	-62.2wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Misa Esports	36c	73.94$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.19	1,579	29.7%469 W · 1,110 L	-86.9wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe544…c7afbacked Misa Esports	79c	73.6$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.72	85	45.9%39 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e3…85f0backed Fire Flux Esports	60c	73.27$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.81	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked Misa Esports	72c	69.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.42	98	64.3%63 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e5…c8d1backed Fire Flux Esports	24c	66.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+4.2wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab0…ba53backed Fire Flux Esports	74c	66.41$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.14	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Fire Flux Esports	48c	64.9$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	410	54.6%224 W · 186 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Misa Esports	52c	62.92$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.14	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Fire Flux Esports	57c	62.89$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.98	512	52.1%267 W · 245 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Fire Flux Esports	27c	61$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	380	32.1%122 W · 258 L	-18.7wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf21…667bbacked Misa Esports	40c	59.98$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.99	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Misa Esports	43c	57.81$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.94	2,349	42.5%998 W · 1,351 L	-72.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fc…1962backed Misa Esports	28c	53.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.74	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Misa Esports	56c	51.97$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.96	105	60%63 W · 42 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed Fire Flux Esports	58c	51.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	144	39.6%57 W · 87 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Misa Esports	34c	47$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.02	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e74…6bdfbacked Misa Esports	46c	44.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.12	48	70.8%34 W · 14 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Fire Flux Esports	59c	44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	457	48.1%220 W · 237 L	-4.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked Misa Esports	64c	42$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Fire Flux Esports	57c	41.42$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	1,848	47.6%879 W · 969 L	-55.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Misa Esports	69c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.4	1,274	71.5%911 W · 363 L	+3.3wins	0.00per pick	71cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Misa Esports	49c	39.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	245	58%142 W · 103 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee22…7054backed Misa Esports	44c	39.32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8e…a638backed Fire Flux Esports	54c	38.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Misa Esports	42c	38$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.04	163	51.5%84 W · 79 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ab…14e7backed Misa Esports	33c	36.88$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.74	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Misa Esports	31c	34.46$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.77	2,508	41%1,029 W · 1,479 L	-115.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Misa Esports	57c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	452	38.3%173 W · 279 L	-29.4wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b9…06debacked Fire Flux Esports	65c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f6…d2f2backed Fire Flux Esports	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62e…2d85backed Fire Flux Esports	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed Misa Esports	57c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.08	189	51.3%97 W · 92 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a4…2b32backed Fire Flux Esports	58c	25.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Fire Flux Esports	49c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	526	45.1%237 W · 289 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Fire Flux Esports	58c	20.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	131	48.1%63 W · 68 L	-9.6wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x326d…3584backed Fire Flux Esports	58c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-13.4wins	-0.29per pick	50cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	29-0.19 edge/pick
0x5904…8099backed Misa Esports	70c	17.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerMisa Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event