TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fluxo W7Mof LOS, Fluxo W7M
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,106 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x498c…42bfbacked Fluxo W7M32c15,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2006131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed LOS42c13,525$5,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,728.211,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked LOS68c11,308$7,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,663.414549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Fluxo W7M31c8,820$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,085.881,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed LOS68c8,536$5,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,804.741,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Fluxo W7M60c7,612$4,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,007.141,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LOS67c6,285$4,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,183.7670456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed LOS68c6,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.9782352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00c9…1d82backed Fluxo W7M34c5,728$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.161050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M68c5,651$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.911,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Fluxo W7M50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…122bbacked Fluxo W7M43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.994057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bac…6fb7backed Fluxo W7M38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9718633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed LOS21c4,545$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.4551044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Fluxo W7M31c4,059$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.0629944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed LOS36c3,893$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.181,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Fluxo W7M40c3,232$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.341,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed LOS37c3,198$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.3569539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LOS67c3,093$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.441,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed LOS24c2,945$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.884630.4%14 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42e2…d154backed Fluxo W7M67c2,677$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.3910253.9%55 W · 47 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Fluxo W7M31c2,500$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.481,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fluxo W7M71c2,414$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.081,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed Fluxo W7M32c2,170$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.611860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed LOS63c2,073$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.4918467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Fluxo W7M51c2,000$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.6963546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed LOS45c1,864$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.7864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked LOS23c1,797$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.661,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed LOS69c1,746$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked LOS56c1,700$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.1653355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Fluxo W7M52c1,600$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.523751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked LOS57c1,510$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.832,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed LOS69c1,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0351,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed LOS71c1,409$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked LOS57c1,355$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.422,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Fluxo W7M43c1,353$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77728042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Fluxo W7M66c1,341$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.7752848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Fluxo W7M31c1,300$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89744335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed LOS67c1,292$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.779062.2%56 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Fluxo W7M31c1,292$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.4632941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked LOS56c1,248$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.061,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac4…7310backed Fluxo W7M78c1,237$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.7513854.3%75 W · 63 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed LOS51c1,226$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.5550749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Fluxo W7M59c1,162$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.261,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed LOS69c1,131$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.052,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed LOS62c1,121$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.5119041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Fluxo W7M36c1,118$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.471,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Fluxo W7M29c1,089$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.4615046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Fluxo W7M32c1,078$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.0843837.9%166 W · 272 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Fluxo W7M38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.354246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece6…c4bfbacked Fluxo W7M33c1,040$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.82540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed LOS15c1,032$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked LOS49c1,015$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed LOS69c1,009$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.4713752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed LOS69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6908922.5%20 W · 69 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Fluxo W7M32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68050848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8227…0bccbacked LOS50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007060%42 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed LOS69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6904126.8%11 W · 30 L-8.0wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Fluxo W7M51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49050242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed LOS62c999.99$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.871,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked LOS58c992.65$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.4143358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Fluxo W7M32c978$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.6367931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed LOS44c935.55$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.243342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed LOS58c832.7$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.8186251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Fluxo W7M37c772.8$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.469841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed LOS10c750$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7897427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked LOS69c724.64$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed LOS66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LOS43c699.86$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1995041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Fluxo W7M79c694.05$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0537754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Fluxo W7M69c673.44$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.444062.5%25 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Fluxo W7M39c666.66$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6662158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LOS41c655.67$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.3876142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Fluxo W7M54c639.64$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.122,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Fluxo W7M32c602.85$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9428240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed LOS51c600.71$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0811246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Fluxo W7M76c600$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14363646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Fluxo W7M35c600$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Fluxo W7M39c600$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36628448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed LOS57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.871,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Fluxo W7M35c586.96$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.6552743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed LOS16c578$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8818116%29 W · 152 L-17.8wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fluxo W7M47c574.61$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.781,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked LOS23c571.31$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6619244.3%85 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LOS22c566.22$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.482,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked LOS32c551.19$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.281,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked LOS38c536.7$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5333125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed LOS50c534.34$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.1139859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed LOS36c533.3$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.71,21839.9%486 W · 732 L-65.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed LOS69c516.88$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6549847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked LOS13c516$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2225331.2%79 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Fluxo W7M38c512.09$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.0912047.5%57 W · 63 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed LOS11c509$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.446841.7%195 W · 273 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d49…a319backed Fluxo W7M54c503.41$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.576266.1%41 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed LOS47c500$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.594237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38d7…af0dbacked LOS69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-64.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked LOS67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33514547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed LOS52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.6557151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Fluxo W7M40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked LOS64c489.85$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.231,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.