WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 177.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5993d71e9a4551b41c133c34270c5ffb774a5bf25ae3b1d2b69a43f842ce4ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Over | 56c | 4,954$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.76 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 4,373$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.53 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 44c | 3,591$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…e298backed Under | 47c | 2,764$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 45c | 2,162$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.69 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 47c | 1,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 24c | 1,335$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.01 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 916.05$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.47 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…38c8backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 313.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 52c | 299.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 48c | 258.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 44c | 189.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 55c | 173.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 36c | 173$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 37c | 168.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 31c | 152.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 68c | 152$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 101.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 39c | 98.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 64c | 83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Over | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 72.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 45c | 66.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 47c | 59.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…002fbacked Over | 72c | 46.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 46.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 26c | 46.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Under | 29c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 73c | 37.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 80c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 177.5this page
- Kamilla Cardoso: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago SkyPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 175.5Over won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.