TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Sky (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Phoenix Mercuryof Chicago Sky, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,346 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1681…5032backed Phoenix Mercury57c4,610$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.027159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chicago Sky45c2,505$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.814546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…5122backed Chicago Sky45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Sky54c2,143$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.9150646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Mercury55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9913746%63 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury57c1,914$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.738650.3%194 W · 192 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Phoenix Mercury55c1,760$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.877655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Sky31c1,590$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.2455255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury66c1,584$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.751,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Chicago Sky27c1,241$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.038836.4%32 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed Phoenix Mercury50c1,201$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.531833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky43c1,164$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4889349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Chicago Sky43c1,159$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Chicago Sky44c1,119$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5815746.5%73 W · 84 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury46c1,063$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.1732540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky43c858.48$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.831,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky51c799.98$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago Sky32c747.21$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7712661.1%77 W · 49 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Sky43c709.88$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2546247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ceb…b821backed Phoenix Mercury55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3153053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Phoenix Mercury55c683.02$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.485154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago Sky44c634$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9626953.2%143 W · 126 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Chicago Sky45c577.02$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.665831%18 W · 40 L-7.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury58c546.1$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7132150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0f…d336backed Chicago Sky45c411.11$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18560%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51ba…3ca5backed Phoenix Mercury49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Sky43c381.58$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0841145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x969e…b834backed Chicago Sky53c379.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002917.2%5 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Phoenix Mercury67c368.96$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.817945.6%36 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury46c365.66$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.4678548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Sky43c354$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2683748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Phoenix Mercury57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.881533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky54c309.8$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc306…accdbacked Phoenix Mercury53c306.79$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.194456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky45c256$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3592248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Chicago Sky52c245.68$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7512355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Phoenix Mercury44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Chicago Sky44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Chicago Sky45c222.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.351936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Chicago Sky23c215.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.441752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Phoenix Mercury52c212.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4328140.6%114 W · 167 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury68c204.49$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8536750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…002fbacked Phoenix Mercury46c203.89$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.071050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Phoenix Mercury45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107732.5%25 W · 52 L-9.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Phoenix Mercury37c194.68$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.815741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…cfdabacked Phoenix Mercury57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Chicago Sky29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Sky56c169.65$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury55c145.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0374942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago Sky47c128.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9337141.2%153 W · 218 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury55c122.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0828647.9%137 W · 149 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Phoenix Mercury57c119.86$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.548138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Chicago Sky39c117.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4618850%94 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac48…e505backed Chicago Sky29c114.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2160%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Phoenix Mercury44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.647944.3%35 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed Chicago Sky45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Sky46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4639947.1%188 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Phoenix Mercury47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539156%51 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…4d43backed Chicago Sky46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466861.8%42 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Phoenix Mercury56c99.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.022653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Phoenix Mercury69c95.28$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.118748.3%42 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Phoenix Mercury63c95.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.23148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Phoenix Mercury69c93.67$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3815453.2%82 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Phoenix Mercury55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9115553.5%83 W · 72 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury68c87.75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.424656.5%139 W · 107 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Chicago Sky55c84.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5120340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe70…7533backed Phoenix Mercury56c81.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.671250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Phoenix Mercury71c76.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.378556.5%48 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1425…3bc8backed Phoenix Mercury67c74.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.45100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Sky44c74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5632049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Phoenix Mercury70c69.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.713355.6%74 W · 59 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Chicago Sky44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305836.2%21 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Phoenix Mercury69c67.85$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0919257.3%110 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0368…9874backed Phoenix Mercury56c62.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a6…c03bbacked Phoenix Mercury56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.576350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Chicago Sky43c52.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7130734.2%105 W · 202 L-28.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Phoenix Mercury68c51.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Chicago Sky46c51.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3332750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Chicago Sky40c48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.222440.2%90 W · 134 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Phoenix Mercury70c47.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1910454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury59c47.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.531448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Chicago Sky45c47.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.317138%27 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbafe…33a6backed Phoenix Mercury54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Chicago Sky46c46.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371245.4%323 W · 389 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Phoenix Mercury44c44.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8137650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Phoenix Mercury56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7630649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Phoenix Mercury75c38.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.532075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Phoenix Mercury58c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9613138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3440550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Chicago Sky36c36.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110853.7%58 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51da…a701backed Phoenix Mercury56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7116153.4%86 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb269…9548backed Phoenix Mercury62c30.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59f1…324ebacked Chicago Sky45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-71.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97d4…7b65backed Chicago Sky44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Chicago Sky44c29.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8234448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd60…3927backed Phoenix Mercury56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Phoenix Mercury57c25.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.212359.3%73 W · 50 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97a7…ac24backed Phoenix Mercury67c25.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.391560%9 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3637…21a4backed Chicago Sky49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.254355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Phoenix Mercury73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7534753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.