World Politics · resolved market
Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ab85c73b5a2b84ee3414fbff52300988abd79389b58f5de71b9fc5af03cc39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 59c | 868.68$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.27 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…7d0fbacked Yes | 38c | 785.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 47c | 500$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…e615backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 447.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 11c | 397.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.99 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 334.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 180.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 40c | 177.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…c346backed No | 36c | 139.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed Yes | 53c | 132.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 64c | 128.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4729backed Yes | 15c | 121$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 58c | 112.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42c…1d8cbacked Yes | 58c | 112.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 27c | 84.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 43c | 80.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 40c | 63.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 55.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed No | 27c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 33.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 64c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f5…bfecbacked Yes | 73c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will CDA win 22–24 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will CDA win 25–27 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will CDA win 28 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.