NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59d0035ca7e05228ec783d018383dbb252396e8c2a4cdaca6cb4680d75261f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Hornets | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 46c | 1,212$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hornets | 39c | 1,135$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 54c | 942.42$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 60c | 925.85$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Hornets | 36c | 923.62$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.66 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets | 45c | 844.74$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.13 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Rockets | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Rockets | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 561 | 54.5%306 W · 255 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 54c | 343.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Rockets | 55c | 182.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Rockets | 55c | 167$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rockets | 52c | 103.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hornets | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…61f0backed Hornets | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Hornets | 47c | 81.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Rockets | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 53c | 59.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Rockets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Hornets | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Hornets | 47c | 48.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hornets | 46c | 45.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hornets | 45c | 44.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Hornets | 47c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rockets | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Rockets | 55c | 36.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Rockets | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Hornets | 47c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Rockets | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Hornets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 20.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. HornetsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 103.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 214.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.