NBA · resolved market
Will Team Melo win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59e68986cda9afa39e9a36872b30b92c900b9349b904436b0c2ab8020c751663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 50c | 7,757$3,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,902.18 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked No | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 52c | 4,975$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 62c | 3,139$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 58c | 999.97$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.99 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Yes | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 49c | 877.97$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.98 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 54c | 721.38$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.67 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed Yes | 57c | 600$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…c332backed Yes | 43c | 413.18$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 183 | 32.2%59 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 61c | 266.03$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 49c | 255.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked No | 48c | 221$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Yes | 62c | 161.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed No | 43c | 150.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked No | 38c | 147.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 344 | 56.7%195 W · 149 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…17d1backed Yes | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…094abacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c97backed Yes | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…aaf7backed Yes | 42c | 59.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 52c | 48.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…bd01backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cc8cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff59…dc24backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Yes | 57c | 28.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 58c | 27.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 57c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Team Melo win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship?this page
- Will Team Austin win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship?No won
- Will Team T-Mac win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship?No won
- Will Team Vince win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.