CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba42164b950d3b70f95cd7fae8490e48ddd7fd35f4a4796da79f8686b99b9f8

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Team Falconsof Team Falcons, K27
Resolved: May 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $368,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $419,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,256 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked K27	12c	79,190$9,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,364.5	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed K27	12c	30,000$3,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,600	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked K27	10c	24,950$2,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,496.99	185	50.8%94 W · 91 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed K27	11c	15,732$1,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,730.53	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed K27	2c	14,591$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.55	1,411	33.7%475 W · 936 L	+42.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked K27	11c	13,434$1,468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,468.41	844	54.3%458 W · 386 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a9…5aa1backed K27	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked K27	11c	6,640$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.45	162	45.1%73 W · 89 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed K27	8c	6,400$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.99	327	32.4%106 W · 221 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked K27	3c	6,268$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.93	1,623	44.9%728 W · 895 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed K27	11c	4,480$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2,009	53.9%1,082 W · 927 L	+7.6wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed K27	2c	3,670$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	+3.7wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed K27	12c	3,500$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	124	26.6%33 W · 91 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked K27	12c	3,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	193	46.1%89 W · 104 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked K27	12c	2,833$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.91	1,573	35.3%556 W · 1,017 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked K27	12c	2,817$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.07	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed K27	8c	2,809$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.53	116	33.6%39 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed K27	12c	2,636$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.76	2,624	51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L	+18.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed K27	13c	2,593$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	352	36.4%128 W · 224 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5c…a375backed K27	2c	2,498$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed K27	11c	2,307$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.99	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…4b63backed K27	2c	2,272$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	119	47.9%57 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked K27	3c	2,147$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.78	3,257	50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L	+98.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed K27	4c	2,093$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.53	85	20%17 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked K27	5c	1,849$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.43	2,349	42.5%998 W · 1,351 L	-72.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked K27	3c	1,697$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	1,040	44%458 W · 582 L	-22.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed K27	12c	1,683$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.97	426	38%162 W · 264 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa885…43e3backed K27	4c	1,372$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.79	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed K27	7c	1,315$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.26	61	19.7%12 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked K27	4c	1,228$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	7,925	50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L	+179.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c22…0c2cbacked K27	12c	1,061$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.34	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed K27	13c	1,021$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.79	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8953…e093backed K27	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…b01bbacked K27	13c	999.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8001…c76fbacked K27	12c	957$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.84	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed K27	6c	864.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.1	169	35.5%60 W · 109 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed K27	7c	799.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.61	449	39.2%176 W · 273 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed K27	11c	794.33$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.07	838	56.1%470 W · 368 L	+31.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed K27	12c	774.95$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.54	87	57.5%50 W · 37 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed K27	8c	730.31$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.96	106	53.8%57 W · 49 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed K27	5c	716.85$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	1,038	39.9%414 W · 624 L	+20.9wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed K27	4c	677.04$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed K27	3c	632.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	211	35.5%75 W · 136 L	-6.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed K27	11c	621.15$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.33	287	38%109 W · 178 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed K27	12c	521.77$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.9	220	59.1%130 W · 90 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68df…108ebacked K27	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed K27	6c	499.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-57%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed K27	5c	493.77$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.34	6,480	42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L	-79.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed K27	11c	459.5$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.55	1,620	52.7%853 W · 767 L	+57.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde96…7dfcbacked K27	9c	437.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed K27	12c	420$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	1,076	37.6%405 W · 671 L	+34.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd292…5441backed K27	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked K27	12c	414.48$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	558	43.5%243 W · 315 L	-16.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3e…8869backed K27	12c	409.98$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	152	59.9%91 W · 61 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed K27	10c	405.1$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.07	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed K27	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2,066	41.5%858 W · 1,208 L	-49.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc007…a0edbacked K27	12c	395.2$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	205	44.4%91 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed K27	3c	394.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	1,088	54.2%590 W · 498 L	+39.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed K27	12c	350.33$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.04	103	56.3%58 W · 45 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked K27	12c	319.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	2,622	47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L	-33.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed K27	12c	318.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	108	54.6%59 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked K27	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	583	43.6%254 W · 329 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked K27	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	300	31.7%95 W · 205 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf15…2aa9backed K27	10c	258.11$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.81	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed K27	6c	231.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	1,216	40.1%488 W · 728 L	-65.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked K27	11c	212.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	746	53.5%399 W · 347 L	+9.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked K27	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	120	44.2%53 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b5…1ec0backed K27	6c	175.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-21%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa386…cb0fbacked K27	13c	168.63$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.92	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked K27	7c	162.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	4,691	43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L	-83.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed K27	12c	162$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	174	38.5%67 W · 107 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x431d…8fdebacked K27	12c	158.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked K27	14c	156.25$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked K27	13c	155$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	242	49.2%119 W · 123 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe546…e571backed K27	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f7…a146backed K27	12c	153$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked K27	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	113	54.9%62 W · 51 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8013…ca53backed K27	12c	143.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.25	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed K27	11c	126.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	762	48.4%369 W · 393 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc86b…c364backed K27	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked K27	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	660	34.1%225 W · 435 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f90…a39fbacked K27	12c	101.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e8…2c0ebacked K27	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-5.2wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed K27	13c	85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	2,061	50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L	-18.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagethis page
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5)Team Falcons won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event