Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf63ac727c07973d1accce473eb855c4dbc6af5d3506cd8c3bb4eb960aae74c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 16c | 12,466$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.36 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 15c | 10,924$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.59 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 13c | 10,855$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.21 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 16c | 6,338$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.05 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 15c | 5,420$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.03 | 93 | 23.7%22 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 14c | 3,510$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.23 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 2,819$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.99 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,575$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.83 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed Yes | 13c | 2,432$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.16 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Yes | 15c | 2,123$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.56 | 326 | 42.9%140 W · 186 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 1,223$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 15c | 1,203$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,082$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…aa22backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…efffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…0079backed Yes | 15c | 643.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 16c | 563.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d7…da62backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 25.9%38 W · 109 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a4…3fe8backed Yes | 16c | 483.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…1351backed Yes | 17c | 341.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed Yes | 13c | 279.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 191 | 25.1%48 W · 143 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 13c | 279.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 783 | 17.4%136 W · 647 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 756 | 30.4%230 W · 526 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed Yes | 13c | 249.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 16c | 218.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 216.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 15c | 180.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…a8bbbacked Yes | 14c | 178.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4cf3backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…3e06backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…fcb3backed Yes | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…b512backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe114…2175backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…b28bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 261 | 33.3%87 W · 174 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 295 | 29.8%88 W · 207 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…35bfbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 228 | 25.4%58 W · 170 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…557fbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 202 | 53%107 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…cb25backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…6929backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…323abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first?this page
- Ecuador to score first vs. Mexico?No won
- Mexico to score first vs. Ecuador?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.