Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cbec1375d78b10949d27806bd1b0501814e673c7e0b798ad371a6ffe75c8d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 716.08$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 474$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 376$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 323.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 319.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 296$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 284.35$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.42 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 200.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 163.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 63c | 142.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 131.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 39c | 114.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 110.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 109.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 47c | 84.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 76.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 47c | 65.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 52c | 63.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 50c | 60.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 32c | 58.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 42c | 56.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 55.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 54c | 55.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 54.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 39c | 51.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…275cbacked Yes | 54c | 47.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 52c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 30c | 38.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 37.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 35.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 51c | 33.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 54c | 31.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 31.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 30.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 47c | 28.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 56c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 55c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 47c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.