NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce243546b44051091c0f37bde7037c85ccd0510db4826f8f2d383a9875c4111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 56c | 21,955$12,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,274.57 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 11,738$5,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,338.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 50c | 8,342$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 41c | 7,492$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,420 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 2,323$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 2,032$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 2,022$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 1,423$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 1,110$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 1,007$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…1d6ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 683$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 50c | 553$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 3c | 505.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 431.2$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Over | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Over | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 232$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 48c | 98.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 36c | 61.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 51c | 52.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…6a9bbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 50c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…ab73backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Bucks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.