NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4191662e8f78fd2f5d0d383a533bdbb53e393d9b5fa8d9947bbff3d9d1d0c473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 50c | 49,521$24,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,781.53 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 50c | 31,237$15,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,618.44 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 11,769$5,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,886.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Over | 56c | 2,680$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.02 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 54c | 2,490$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 33c | 1,651$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…787bbacked Over | 53c | 1,575$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 1,224$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,102$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 915.76$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 57c | 570$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.13 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 71c | 486.31$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 357$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 43c | 338.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 47c | 321$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 47c | 265.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 245.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.06 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 68c | 201.46$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 17c | 200.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Over | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Over | 65c | 186.45$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 169.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 156.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 57c | 154.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 47c | 151.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 42c | 135.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Under | 28c | 124.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 51c | 117.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 117.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 35c | 101.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Over | 53c | 91.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed Under | 28c | 79.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 50c | 76.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 54c | 68.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…1965backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +10.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Over | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 21c | 60.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…0ddcbacked Under | 37c | 59.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2d7fbacked Under | 29c | 58.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Over | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a53…70a1backed Under | 44c | 46.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 71c | 42.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…7e93backed Under | 47c | 40.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 54c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 45c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 54c | 29.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…b387backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 45c | 23.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Over | 55c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 72c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…840bbacked Over | 53c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5this page
- Bucks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.