NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x937fabe97d85e9ef57e63067d9148419b165110cf2eb3b2086cfa4a5616075ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 2,674$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.07 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 46c | 2,004$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.6 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 1,369$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,175$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,134$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.44 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 1,059$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.97 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 48c | 411$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 405.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 54c | 381.94$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.25 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 46c | 299.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 28c | 299.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 220$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 210.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…7d97backed Under | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 191.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 47c | 138.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Under | 55c | 127.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 126$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…be21backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 16c | 85.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 84.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 70.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 46c | 70.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Under | 55c | 52.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 55c | 48.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 44c | 46.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 45c | 44.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 36.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…99d2backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Over | 59c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 55c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330e…c22abacked Under | 55c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 21.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 20.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 65c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5this page
- Bucks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.