TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Winnipeg: James McCabe vs Duncan Chan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Duncan Chanof James McCabe, Duncan Chan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$272,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$282,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa569…08dfbacked James McCabe55c30,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,499.894936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd231…633cbacked James McCabe72c21,919$15,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,698.346058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed James McCabe49c18,477$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00071329.7%212 W · 501 L-39.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Duncan Chan50c14,521$7,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,316.3761940.7%252 W · 367 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Duncan Chan44c13,871$6,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,821.272,23852.1%1,165 W · 1,073 L+80.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Duncan Chan42c12,892$5,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,456.964,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Duncan Chan45c10,279$4,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,690.386,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7574…fcc7backed James McCabe59c5,456$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,214.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ada…dcb4backed James McCabe2c4,136$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.724740.4%19 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed James McCabe55c3,588$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.031,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Duncan Chan54c3,317$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.282,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ba4…f918backed James McCabe4c3,140$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010931.2%34 W · 75 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked James McCabe4c3,140$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209437.2%35 W · 59 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+3.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4041…60f0backed James McCabe4c3,118$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.188530.6%26 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed James McCabe66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98014065%91 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Duncan Chan25c2,992$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.544,41151.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L+137.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed James McCabe70c2,719$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.182,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Duncan Chan34c2,611$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.7131052.9%164 W · 146 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Duncan Chan37c2,476$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.5936548.2%176 W · 189 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Duncan Chan60c2,341$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.292,75453.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L+71.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Duncan Chan41c2,299$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.2531234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked James McCabe70c2,171$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.8893168.1%634 W · 297 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a3…9b39backed Duncan Chan51c1,956$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.9311554.8%63 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Duncan Chan55c1,952$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.214,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked James McCabe4c1,875$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2514936.9%55 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked James McCabe37c1,825$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.786,41946.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Duncan Chan36c1,774$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.924,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked James McCabe5c1,729$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6115733.1%52 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Duncan Chan41c1,518$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.3827048.1%130 W · 140 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f19…474ebacked James McCabe2c1,506$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4718038.3%69 W · 111 L+13.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Duncan Chan45c1,482$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.2238257.6%220 W · 162 L+19.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked James McCabe55c1,416$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.7553043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Duncan Chan37c1,404$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.5429932.8%98 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8558…8615backed Duncan Chan53c1,400$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.730563.9%195 W · 110 L+34.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Duncan Chan45c1,397$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.136260.5%219 W · 143 L+27.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Duncan Chan45c1,380$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.2237959.1%224 W · 155 L+26.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed James McCabe67c1,341$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.9218947.6%90 W · 99 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked James McCabe74c1,338$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.0633163.7%211 W · 120 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3e…b9c5backed Duncan Chan45c1,315$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.0734658.1%201 W · 145 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed James McCabe67c1,229$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.5467757.6%390 W · 287 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed James McCabe50c1,206$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.441131.9%131 W · 280 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Duncan Chan43c1,165$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.718,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed James McCabe63c1,098$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.081,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Duncan Chan35c1,076$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.1138033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked Duncan Chan24c1,048$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.44456.8%25 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Duncan Chan57c1,031$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.953,62145.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L-3.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed James McCabe53c1,024$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.0436141%148 W · 213 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…705fbacked Duncan Chan45c1,004$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.3927852.5%146 W · 132 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Duncan Chan37c1,002$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.763,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James McCabe50c1,001$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.019,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked James McCabe2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Duncan Chan39c992.56$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.1552152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe256…db21backed James McCabe62c990.99$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.483450%17 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed James McCabe41c965.56$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030525.9%79 W · 226 L-28.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Duncan Chan24c921$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.511,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Duncan Chan40c900.78$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.044,58448.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L+35.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d23…9517backed James McCabe54c899.8$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.585261.5%32 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed James McCabe38c850.98$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9328042.9%120 W · 160 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Duncan Chan24c842$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.921,80640.9%739 W · 1,067 L-31.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…20c0backed Duncan Chan52c829$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3999053.3%48 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Duncan Chan45c822.31$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.2743352.9%229 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Duncan Chan45c819.02$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.2849957.5%287 W · 212 L+29.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Duncan Chan24c816$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.1622552%117 W · 108 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Duncan Chan45c795.62$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.9246251.7%239 W · 223 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Duncan Chan45c795.01$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.2641554.7%227 W · 188 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…db95backed Duncan Chan45c793.13$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2231952%166 W · 153 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab2…9decbacked Duncan Chan45c763.02$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.6627551.3%141 W · 134 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…32b5backed Duncan Chan45c761.73$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.9530255.6%168 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Duncan Chan45c755.69$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.1628454.2%154 W · 130 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Duncan Chan24c742.36$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.194158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3131…91cdbacked Duncan Chan45c732.53$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.8930454.9%167 W · 137 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked James McCabe41c729.88$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.251,44448.8%705 W · 739 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked James McCabe59c712.97$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.4214036.4%51 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Duncan Chan50c696.91$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.42,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Duncan Chan44c690.25$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.6745457%259 W · 195 L+27.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed James McCabe56c685$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.61,07360.4%648 W · 425 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked James McCabe59c683.49$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5228652.8%151 W · 135 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Duncan Chan49c669.81$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.2676355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec11…953fbacked James McCabe54c664.46$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.8113648.5%66 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd13e…ed01backed Duncan Chan49c647.59$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.9432754.4%178 W · 149 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Duncan Chan27c634.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.461,77348.6%861 W · 912 L+28.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Duncan Chan54c611.56$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6422951.1%117 W · 112 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed James McCabe50c601.89$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.081,56340%625 W · 938 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Duncan Chan45c565.63$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.151757.4%297 W · 220 L+31.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Duncan Chan38c556.75$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.868,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed James McCabe54c550.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Duncan Chan61c544.13$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.026,41154.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L+283.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed James McCabe5c540$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2915437%57 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Duncan Chan37c533.95$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.396,99839.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L-16.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Duncan Chan24c523.95$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.23357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…d0f0backed Duncan Chan45c523.06$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.6845055.3%249 W · 201 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd74…00a1backed Duncan Chan46c513.17$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.0647858.4%279 W · 199 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Duncan Chan31c505.65$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.52828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3356…92c2backed James McCabe51c478.16$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0f…a5fcbacked James McCabe42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007338.4%28 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d24…f379backed Duncan Chan45c465.76$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.6134854%188 W · 160 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Duncan Chan48c463.22$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1935153.8%189 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed James McCabe45c439.62$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.676,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Duncan Chan48c436.42$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0150655.5%281 W · 225 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked James McCabe49c431$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1931237.8%118 W · 194 L-24.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.