Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf692cd56ab3219b226d686b114e7ebd13d65829431b48a2214fab526effbbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 71c | 2,241$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.12 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 29c | 1,156$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.27 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,045$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1,414.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 25c | 744.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 22c | 675.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 79c | 578.97$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.33 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 78c | 555$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 29c | 501.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.87 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 414.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 31c | 244.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 174.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 29c | 164.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 163$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 26c | 120.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed Yes | 26c | 110.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…8794backed No | 73c | 99.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…76a0backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 73c | 88.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed Yes | 27c | 88.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 86.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked Yes | 24c | 76.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 27c | 75.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 77c | 59.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…3401backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 21c | 49.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 49.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 25c | 46.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…85babacked Yes | 38c | 38.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 52c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…b9c5backed No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked No | 73c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844f…e978backed No | 75c | 13.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?this page
- Will the US add at least 100k jobs in March?Yes won
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US lose between 100k and 150k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US lose between 50k and 100k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.