La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d180cc14267a2433a9f27f4c25296c7b14a6baa8eb21b5f449dee1814ea7fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 45c | 50,000$22,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,499.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 49,553$27,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,015.65 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 3,642$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.96 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 38c | 2,669$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.12 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 49c | 2,034$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,260$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.23 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Over | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 38c | 596.51$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.3 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 57c | 385$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 329.31$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 312.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 50c | 296$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…7f42backed Under | 56c | 265.39$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…fde6backed Over | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Over | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Under | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 57c | 99.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 26c | 96.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 62c | 81.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 75c | 81.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 80.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Under | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 63c | 59.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 54c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Under | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 44.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 29c | 41.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 39.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 65c | 32.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…26a7backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…91ddbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.