La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca2afe5dc883863cbf743f98be272fb901404fbcc5d5e8297c94ba3cd34327c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 13,621$9,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,329.57 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 37c | 5,350$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350.95 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 4,953$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.95 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 26c | 2,420$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.21 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 48c | 2,063$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.87 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…59bfbacked Over | 36c | 1,894$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 68c | 1,710$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,612$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.94 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 26c | 1,101$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.16 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Under | 21c | 950$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 26c | 848$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.23 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Over | 78c | 760.91$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.84 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Under | 70c | 714.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.15 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 33c | 679.57$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 31c | 562.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.48 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 504.12$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.29 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Over | 51c | 499.95$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 74c | 349.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 316.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 298.72$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 35c | 286.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 280.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 26c | 251$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 54c | 211.89$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 32c | 182.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 68c | 148.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 35c | 144$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 56c | 134.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 29c | 134.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 134.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 49c | 107$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under | 65c | 100.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5768…a918backed Over | 26c | 87.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 72c | 86.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 47c | 84.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 42c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 25c | 71.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 38c | 56.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 36c | 45.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…6e96backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 77c | 34.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 67c | 34.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed Under | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2548…b742backed Over | 65c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Over | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +18.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 67c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Elche CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.