Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9f5db755ba53a1b064b60072df9bc5d4c9d47a77302f77bc509fb8f5b0cd38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 52c | 2,149$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.48 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 1,096$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 851.33$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 61c | 813.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 717.88$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 570.8$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 496.39$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 393.6$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 345.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 54c | 331.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 314.96$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 259.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 48c | 246.98$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 44c | 226.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 215.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 209.64$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 37c | 204$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 184.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 38c | 183$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 43c | 178.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 160.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 155.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 153.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 148.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 142$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 135.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 131.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 54c | 128.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 53c | 128$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 38c | 127.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 127.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 126.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 123.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 120.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 47c | 119.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 116.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 112.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 111.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 22c | 107.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 100.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a68…1e7abacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…d31dbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…8f2ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2f…b741backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 96.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 96.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 95.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 95.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 94.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6e…0f70backed Yes | 52c | 90.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 89.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 86.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 84.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 45c | 83.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 64c | 82.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 82.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 57c | 78.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 70.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 61c | 69.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 35c | 66.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 61c | 64.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 63.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 61.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 61.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 61.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked No | 41c | 60.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 59.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 43c | 58.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 27c | 57.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 38c | 56.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 53.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 49c | 51.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 50.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 50c | 50.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.