Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c21dc6ab914a89a87b2999c2d7c5c202205c2abcf6b4423f2366df2e43691d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 53c | 2,288$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.35 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.11 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 891.11$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 48c | 722.43$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.58 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 667$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 651.99$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 588.12$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 548.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 546.28$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 59c | 529.32$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.93 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 41c | 502.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.31 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 50c | 499.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 487.82$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 50c | 442.22$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 338$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.01 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 333.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 324.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.27 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 304.44$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 52c | 286.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 52c | 280.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 239$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 228.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 223.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 19c | 207$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 192.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 188$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 186.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 57c | 182.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 45c | 181.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 177.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 167.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 34c | 158.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 48c | 158$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 52c | 148.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 148.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 132$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 46c | 131.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 52c | 128.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 126.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 125.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 51c | 125.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 40c | 124.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 120.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 118.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 48c | 104.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 97.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 87.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 84.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 56c | 83.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 47c | 80.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 77.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 47c | 74.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 71.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 70.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked Yes | 40c | 69.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 68.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 77c | 64.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 43c | 62.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 50c | 61.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 48c | 59.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 58.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 57.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 53c | 56.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 50c | 51.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 22c | 50.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 48.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 39c | 45.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 48c | 43.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 48c | 43.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…ddacbacked Yes | 52c | 43.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 43.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 42.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 34c | 42.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 40.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.