MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e2c83ce71f79a90278b97475b67df5f1475095a5cca15be4d0e0e4a71336390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 16,129$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 252 | 45.6%115 W · 137 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 6,043$4,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.35 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 5,870$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.7 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,560$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.8 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,530$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.21 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,530$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.21 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 1,095$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.73 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 1,037$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 67c | 1,025$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,083 | 48.1%521 W · 562 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 708.11$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.51 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 595.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 488.84$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 298.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 273$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 241.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 240.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Kansas City Royals | 69c | 231.84$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 94.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 91.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 73.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 62.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 469 | 59.5%279 W · 190 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Kansas City Royals | 69c | 48.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 482 | 50.6%244 W · 238 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 966 | 48.9%472 W · 494 L | -40.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 37.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.