TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Over77c7,847$6,033 inWon+$1,814.124,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under23c3,882$894 inLost-$894.3811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under23c1,000$230 inLost-$2305,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under26c884.99$226 inLost-$226.239,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under25c835.06$207 inLost-$206.691,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over77c833$640 inWon+$193.352,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3449…abdfbacked Under26c745.2$194 inLost-$193.758624.4%21 W · 65 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under26c567.72$150 inLost-$150.418,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under26c288$75 inLost-$74.8816746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under23c271.86$63 inLost-$62.536,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over74c204.02$151 inWon+$53.054,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under23c169.71$39 inLost-$39.0389053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under23c151.09$35 inLost-$34.7567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under23c100$23 inLost-$231,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under28c66.49$18 inLost-$18.292,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over71c53$38 inWon+$15.3724350.2%122 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Over75c36$27 inWon+$9.0816274.1%120 W · 42 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over71c22.54$16 inWon+$6.5450962.9%320 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over71c20.18$14 inWon+$5.851,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over79c14$11 inWon+$2.9412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.