MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5b92f96e25b55ea5b37a36ccbd28cd50e76f56ad8a582b37f456016f161f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 17,653$6,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,563.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 12,872$8,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,410.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 10,400$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,760 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 5,396$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 4,133$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Kansas City Royals | 27c | 2,569$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.16 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 2,556$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.36 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 2,193$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.86 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 1,200$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 997$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.05 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 657.91$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 656.82$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.03 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 366.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 300$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 28c | 244$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 230.24$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 184.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 180$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 83.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 61.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 56.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 50.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 50.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 41.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 33.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 25.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 25.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…8ddabacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 14.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.