MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x962b547be600f5b3faecc56c265dac389c9e799fda07739e40d2e9257c6b1543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 50c | 99,440$49,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,821.9 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 80,000$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 20,674$10,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,502.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 9,511$4,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,824.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 7,777$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.26 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 5,898$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940.04 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 5,053$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 2,871$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 2,451$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 50c | 1,976$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.2 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 1,795$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 1,139$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.07 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 1c | 1,094$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 1,064$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.45 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 43c | 900$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 700$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 43c | 605$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.85 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 538$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 481.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 448.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 426.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 51c | 400.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 72c | 271.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Over | 51c | 192.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 129.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 78c | 118.87$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 100.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 15c | 88.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 80.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 79.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 58.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Under | 46c | 55.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 45.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 34.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed Over | 65c | 31.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -15.4wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…8eb1backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 26.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 52c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Over | 60c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Over | 65c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.