TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,899 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa974…ef79backed No50c12,290$6,142 inLost-$6,142.1522047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Yes51c4,000$2,040 inWon+$1,96023351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes49c2,264$1,109 inWon+$1,154.5130647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Yes50c2,058$1,029 inWon+$1,028.938446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes50c1,493$745 inWon+$748.282,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes49c999.99$490 inWon+$509.9949250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes45c762.63$346 inWon+$416.218,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes50c668$334 inWon+$33412350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed No2c608.89$12 inLost-$12.181085.6%6 W · 102 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+339.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes49c600$294 inWon+$30661352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed No57c438.07$250 inLost-$25034650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No53c328.81$173 inLost-$17313759.1%81 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes51c200$102 inWon+$986,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed No51c194.71$100 inLost-$10040753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No50c150$75 inLost-$751,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed No52c114.81$60 inLost-$6016349.1%80 W · 83 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes51c100$51 inWon+$4950337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes48c94.71$45 inWon+$49.251,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Yes52c69.52$36 inWon+$33.3777353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Yes50c66.99$33 inWon+$33.567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Yes52c29.42$15 inWon+$14.1295041.5%394 W · 556 L-48.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Yes71c29.38$21 inWon+$8.4223854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Yes67c29$19 inWon+$9.75,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.