TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$324,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$318,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Over53c105,506$55,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,104.534,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under48c100,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,00055053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb91a…3987backed Over54c79,397$42,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,594.5713561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under46c37,295$17,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,155.77550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under41c15,292$6,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,312.6311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Under46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,9005143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over52c10,649$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.972,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under42c7,646$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.034,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under40c5,949$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.681,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under40c5,949$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.681,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under40c5,826$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.571,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under46c5,585$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.713,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under39c5,440$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.4410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Under46c3,780$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.8119546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under46c3,410$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.51,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under44c3,368$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.665,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over53c3,333$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.511,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Under46c3,028$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.945257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under31c3,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9409657.3%55 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Under46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over55c2,939$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.5592054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006942%29 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over57c2,334$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.9586653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under44c2,200$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.296,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under47c2,083$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.011,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over57c2,028$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.1527254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74051756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under40c1,959$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.6938353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72044451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under45c1,356$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.819,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over55c1,166$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.585853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under46c1,126$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.9627351.3%140 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under44c1,107$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.31,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fe…f03dbacked Under43c1,100$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4732657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Under47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.0516248.8%79 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed Under46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Under46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under45c865.26$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.362,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c855.16$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.588,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under44c816.83$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4149158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under37c802.81$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.798,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked Under46c752.19$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6170…03bdbacked Under37c662.16$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2453748.6%18 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under45c600$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26795850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Under48c598.88$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.464742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under45c594.67$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9147350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Over51c540.51$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.8524150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x592c…2824backed Under21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under47c476.14$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under29c468.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.793,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Under44c465.12$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1129553.2%157 W · 138 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under40c371.48$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.442,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under46c369.5$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9741051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Under45c344.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+183.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under40c322.65$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.061,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under45c300$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13699447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over80c280.79$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under40c245.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.281,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under44c180$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over74c180$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.235,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4115159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4937256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8dd…5672backed Under49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803650%18 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under41c157.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3967444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Over59c151.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under41c151.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9540341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Under46c147.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7310249%50 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under45c144$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4578155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Under37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5047850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under49c129.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.539553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under40c115.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.130048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed Under44c113.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9914057.9%81 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661f…098abacked Under46c110.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513040%12 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8046…963fbacked Over59c101$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Over59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413658.3%21 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a8…22f0backed Under45c99.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under47c99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.242,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Over59c94.07$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5714555.9%81 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a80…2dadbacked Under46c93.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.137652.6%40 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd9…be42backed Under28c89.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under40c86.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7754152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc582…77e4backed Under12c84.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9216251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf09…d342backed Under49c75.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under42c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.751,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbd…a363backed Over52c74.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Over59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.815857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Over55c63.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6243560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Under44c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9114751.7%76 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…2b55backed Under42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523455.1%129 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Over55c57.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9612541.6%52 W · 73 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under22c55.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.038,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Under33c53.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56238.7%24 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under40c52.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9458649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under40c51.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4251555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.882741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x264a…c8b0backed Under47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.