MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf35365e8955033b7436254f20965e8c9eedd8baf5947eee56efc125e81510957
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 40c | 5,475$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,266.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…23febacked Under | 2c | 2,058$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 60c | 1,816$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.9 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 60c | 1,685$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.78 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 1,631$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.79 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 1,441$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 72c | 1,139$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.42 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 62c | 897.63$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.63 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 847.71$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.87 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 835.99$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.16 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 39c | 735.02$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.36 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 27c | 574$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.02 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 556.38$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.79 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 77c | 502.62$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.22 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 401$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 62c | 308$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.96 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 299.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 33c | 261.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 180$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 43c | 165.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 144.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 24c | 137$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 131.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 70c | 126$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 119.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 57c | 92.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 43c | 87.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 43c | 75.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 57.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 74c | 50.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 40c | 40.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 47c | 39.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…32d1backed Under | 60c | 30.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…88a5backed Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 41c | 28.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 51c | 27.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 25.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 54c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 392 | 53.6%210 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 61c | 18.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Under | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.