MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30c63ce762baff3b12eb4894397f24f138e08be550624f64ff66a76265baff25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 31c | 5,799$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.69 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 5,063$3,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 31c | 4,948$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 72c | 3,545$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 2,406$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 31c | 2,116$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 71c | 2,097$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 29c | 1,891$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.39 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 1,432$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 30c | 1,339$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 69c | 1,179$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.11 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 16c | 780.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 69c | 755.63$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.99 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 544.49$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 70c | 390$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 65c | 299.1$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 58c | 198$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 195.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 158.76$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 33c | 157.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 156$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 136.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 31c | 133.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 32c | 83.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 46c | 72.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 70c | 52.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 69c | 40.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 66c | 39.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 54c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 26.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 72c | 24.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 69c | 22.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 56c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.