MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0333f3111aa0ef4977eb330cf100150e671ad76b3b58fe006b4d813948930e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 2,095$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 1,322$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.46 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 1,149$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.21 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 920.32$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Kansas City Royals | 52c | 774.5$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 658$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 647.34$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Kansas City Royals | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 482.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 399$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 335.39$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 251.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 186.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 142.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 138.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 126.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 125.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 22c | 111$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 101.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Kansas City Royals | 21c | 83.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 63.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 63.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 59.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 34.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 30.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 25.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 22.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.