TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c1,652$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed No71c424.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.936758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c324.34$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c221$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes20c190.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.821,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes44c185.43$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7838560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No73c175.47$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.142,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No76c175.29$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c173.46$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.052,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No76c159.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.41,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c157.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c146.16$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.984,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c141.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.218,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes63c137.27$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes31c136.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2441966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes24c129.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74122%9 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No76c124.4$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.862,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c117.29$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.624,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes24c106.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.881,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes23c105.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2421340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed No80c104.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15271.2%37 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No60c103.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.421,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c88.74$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes27c88.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9616129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes73c86.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.284656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes23c85.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed Yes71c84.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No33c80$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.764,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.174,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes24c76.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94de…e3cabacked Yes26c76.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205042%21 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5627051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No72c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No61c64.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bd3…af33backed Yes26c63.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.143748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6518368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes24c56.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.586949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes44c54.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7419663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No67c53.74$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7712876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c52.14$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.431,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc621…e292backed Yes23c50.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes24c50.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1714746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes29c49.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf1c…b366backed Yes61c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes23c47.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes29c41.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.932,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250a…c9adbacked No56c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.863360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No75c40.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9142366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.480275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No73c39.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes39c39.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.319166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes40c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2621361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes28c38.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6425541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No55c37.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.891,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes28c36.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0511225%28 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes49c35.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No67c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.354,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c33.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.123,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes42c33.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.113266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No74c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.582,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c31.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.122,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59158.2%53 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed Yes62c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4541760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No69c29.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed Yes60c27.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5880957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No50c24.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1320660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517649.4%87 W · 89 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…acb7backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.86869.1%47 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.655855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0a…65abbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.233876.6%259 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick78cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No65c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No80c19.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9429351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No63c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6848261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc295…c520backed Yes79c17.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.984463.6%28 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No75c17.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3516065.6%105 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No73c16.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.374,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8526…4dedbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.