NHL · resolved market

Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f95509437623f484fbee50dee2c8a596de564d39d40329aef5dd67bc336bbc3

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,756 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x821d…0a01backed Yes	6c	22,656$1,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,325.96	216	52.3%113 W · 103 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes	2c	7,832$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.14	317	44.2%140 W · 177 L	+14.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	16c	7,010$1,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.99	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes	13c	923.37$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.8	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	4c	911.18$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-91.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	4c	851.94$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.18	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	4c	823.52$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	805.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	913	34.1%311 W · 602 L	-27.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30cd…f9f0backed Yes	10c	469.22$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes	3c	425$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	340	32.4%110 W · 230 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	11c	249.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	124	38.7%48 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	65c	237.05$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.49	421	44.4%187 W · 234 L	-28.0wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f86…98d3backed Yes	7c	181.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	2.6%1 W · 38 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-96%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	26c	89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	607	41%249 W · 358 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	53c	52.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.7	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+4.9wins	+0.35per pick	29cpaid	+168.8%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event